Uzbekistan Weekly: Uzbekistan nears WTO entry, debt surges, EBRD takes stake in Asakabank

January 1, 2026 to January 7, 2026

This week's top 10 stories from Uzbekistan, selected from our daily intelligence briefs.

1. External Debt Tops $75.4 Billion as Corporate Borrowing Accelerates

Uzbekistan’s total external debt rose to $75.4 billion as of 1 October 2025, an $11.3 billion increase in the first nine months of the year, driven mainly by a near 27% surge in corporate external borrowing to $38.0 billion (from $30.2 billion) and a sovereign increase to $37.4 billion (from $33.7 billion). The Central Bank says corporate loans from nonresidents—contracted without state guarantees—largely finance private investment, working capital and expansion; it estimates 40–50% of corporate external debt is held by state-owned enterprises. Gross external debt stood at $82.4 billion (up 15.9% year‑to‑date), with short‑term debt at 7.8% of the total and securities-based debt (bonds) now accounting for 16% after a 57% rise since January.

Rating upgrades to BB from BB‑ and stable outlooks by Fitch, S&P and Moody’s—reported by President Shavkat Mirziyoyev—are expected to lower Uzbekistan’s external borrowing costs by about 1–1.5 percentage points and reduce annual external debt service by an estimated $250–300 million, improving fiscal space for planned issuance and investment. International lenders and the World Bank characterize the debt burden as moderate, noting a significant share of concessional financing, but warn of exposure to economic and policy risks given relatively low GDP per capita, rising external debt and elevated social spending.

Local Coverage: uzdaily.uz, anhor.uz, qalampir.uz

From daily briefs: 2026-01-02, 2026-01-04, 2026-01-07

2. WTO Accession Nears Finish Line with Final Bilateral Talks and New Legal Reforms Planned

Uzbekistan expects to complete its World Trade Organization accession by 2026 after closing 33 of 34 bilateral market-access negotiations and planning to finish the remaining talks with Chinese Taipei in 2026, followed by multilateral negotiations and a Working Party report. Presidency WTO representative Azizbek Urunov said 2025 saw the adoption of 30 WTO-related legal acts and the conclusion of deals with major trading partners including the EU, China, Russia, the UK, Switzerland, Canada and Australia.

To align with WTO obligations, Tashkent intends to adopt 29 further legal acts covering customs procedures, export duties, trade remedies, technical regulation, sanitary and phytosanitary measures, and intellectual property; it also plans to consolidate commitments on goods and services schedules, transit freedom and trade facilitation. If implemented on schedule, these reforms would significantly deepen Uzbekistan’s integration into the rules-based global trading system and reduce barriers for foreign firms operating in the market.

Local Coverage: gazeta.uz, kun.uz, qalampir.uz

From daily brief: 2026-01-06

3. EBRD to Acquire 15% Stake in Asakabank Following Privatization Deal

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has agreed key terms with Uzbekistan’s government to acquire a 15% stake in state-owned Asakabank, with the transaction expected to complete in 2026 after due diligence, transactional conditions and regulatory approvals; the deal value was not disclosed. The move forms part of Uzbekistan’s broader banking-sector reform to reduce state ownership and attract international capital and expertise.

An EBRD equity stake typically precedes technical assistance and possible co‑investment, signaling international confidence in Asakabank’s governance, risk management and potential future listing. Market participants will monitor the timetable for closing, any subsequent privatization tranches or strategic partnerships, and how this investment influences sector consolidation and investor appetite in Uzbek financial markets.

Local Coverage: kun.uz

From daily brief: 2026-01-02

4. 2030 Strategy Sets Targets for Roads, Rail, Tourism, Exports, and Digital Capacity

Uzbekistan’s draft “Uzbekistan–2030” strategy, released for public consultation, sets measurable 2026–2030 targets across transport, tourism, trade, industry, digital capacity and human capital aimed at diversifying the economy and accelerating urban development. Key transport commitments include construction, reconstruction and capital repair of 45,200 km of roads, phased tolling reaching 130 km by 2030, transport services volume rising to UZS 301 trillion, high‑speed rail passenger traffic reaching 3.25 million annually, 65% electrified track share and reduced freight times on the Samarkand–Karakalpakstan axis to six days. Tourism targets are 20 million foreign visitors, five tourism clusters, 4,000 new lodging facilities, expanded mountain access, and tourism exports of $6 billion (with medical/education tourism at $1.5 billion). Trade and industry goals raise exports from $40 billion to $67 billion and increase finished goods to 70%; industrial policy includes scaling passenger car output to 1 million units annually.

Digital and human‑capital measures include boosting international bandwidth to 5,000 Gbit/s, near‑universal fiber coverage, higher baseline internet speeds and a $5 billion digital services export target supported by IT Park and startup programs. Education and workforce initiatives propose recruiting 600 foreign “native‑language” teachers annually, training 2 million people in vocational and entrepreneurial skills, sending up to 500 students and specialists per year to top foreign universities, and offering training vouchers for the unemployed. For international investors and providers, the strategy signals expanded opportunities in hospitality, transport, construction, automotive manufacturing, digital services and vocational training; critical risks to monitor are financing plans, implementation decrees, land and permitting bottlenecks, workforce upskilling capacity and regional allocation of projects.

Local Coverage: uzdaily.uz, kun.uz

From daily briefs: 2026-01-01, 2026-01-03

5. Parliament-Approved Budget Amendments Lift 2025 Spending by 41.2 Trillion UZS, Expand Security and Social Outlays

Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev has signed parliamentary amendments that raise 2025 state spending to 322.87 trillion UZS, an increase of 41.2 trillion UZS (≈$3.43 billion). The revisions allocate 13.2 trillion UZS for higher wages, pensions and benefits; 2.7 trillion UZS for energy-efficiency retrofits in housing and public facilities; 5.8 trillion UZS for investment projects and regional development; and 3 trillion UZS in cotton subsidies (1 million UZS per ton sold via the exchange). Outlays for law enforcement and security agencies surge 36.7% to 68.35 trillion UZS, while targeted increases support arts schools, cultural institutions, statistics, water‑saving agriculture measures and pasture restoration; spending for certain innovation funds is reduced and the Pensiya Fund receives higher transfers.

The government justifies the expansion by stronger tax receipts tied to an upgraded 2024 GDP growth forecast of 7% and cites rising external risks as a rationale for precautionary fiscal reinforcement. About 15 trillion UZS of the additional appropriation remains unspecified in public statements, a point that may complicate fiscal transparency and market assessment of medium‑term budget priorities.

Local Coverage: gazeta.uz

From daily brief: 2026-01-01

6. Eurasian Development Bank Sets Project Pipeline in Uzbekistan with Focus on Energy, Transport, and Mining

The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) has prepared a project pipeline for Uzbekistan after the country became the bank’s seventh full member in 2025, targeting major investments in gas-chemicals, transport and mining. Key planned projects include a polymer production complex, a new Bukhara airport and financing for Almalyk Mining and Metallurgical Complex’s (Almalyk MMC) investment programme; the EDB projects investment flows of $300–500 million in 2026 rising to a $1.5 billion portfolio by 2028, including roughly $800 million in high-integration projects, and sees Uzbekistan’s CIS export potential at $1.6 billion (24% above current levels).

The move dovetails with strong recent foreign-capital inflows to Uzbekistan—$43 billion attracted this year—with sectoral jumps in mining (+$449m y/y), water supply (+$274m), roads (+$73m) and pharmaceuticals (+$67m)—and government plans to launch 301 large facilities worth $21 billion by year-end (creating >23,000 jobs). Authorities aim for $50 billion in FDI next year and a five-year target of $180 billion to generate 1 million high-income jobs, using market-rate land allocation, phased conversion payments (up to 10 years) and one-stop processing via invest.gov.uz; the EDB engagement is likely to accelerate modernization of energy and transport systems and deepen regional trade integration.

Local Coverage: uzdaily.uz, uza.uz

From daily briefs: 2026-01-01, 2026-01-07

7. Privatization Plan Targets Five State-Owned Banks by 2030

Uzbekistan’s draft “Uzbekistan–2030” strategy, released for public consultation, proposes privatizing five of the country’s nine state-owned banks by 2030 and cutting state-controlled banks’ share of sector assets from about 65% in 2026 to 55% by 2030. The plan foresees the number of state banks falling to eight in 2026 with at least one privatization per year thereafter and retaining only four state-controlled banks by 2030; as of 1 December 2025, state-participation banks held 64.53% (576.2 trillion soums) of assets. Analysts expect a smaller lender—likely Aloqabank or Turonbank—to be privatized first (2026), with larger institutions such as Sanoatqurilishbank and Asakabank deferred to 2028 or later, noting previous targets (e.g., reducing state-bank asset share to 40% by 2025) were missed.

The draft also introduces a staged rollout of Islamic finance, aiming for Sharia-compliant services at three commercial banks (first in 2027, then 2029 and 2030), and signals slower deposit and credit growth through 2030 while dropping a prior goal to attract at least four major foreign banks. For international professionals, the strategy indicates a gradual market opening that could increase competition for private lenders, reshape asset concentration, and create niche opportunities in Islamic banking contingent on enabling legislation and implementation.

Local Coverage: anhor.uz, uzdaily.uz, kun.uz

From daily briefs: 2026-01-01, 2026-01-03, 2026-01-05

8. AI-Powered Risk Analysis Center Planned to Curb Corruption in Public Procurement

Uzbekistan plans to establish a Risk Analysis Center to automatically flag corruption risks and affiliations in public procurement by integrating state databases, following a presidential directive and drawing on models used in Kazakhstan and planned solutions in Russia. The move addresses scale: nearly 2 million procurement lots are tendered annually while only about 2–3% receive manual checks, leaving many violations undetected; AI will generate “red flags” by correlating corporate ownership, social and legal registries, and social ties between buyers and suppliers for targeted review.

Experts note implementation risks and prerequisites: Kamol Niyazov stresses the need for high-quality, interoperable data, professional capacity in analysis, and public transparency—he urges that AI reports be open to independent oversight and include structured referral pathways to supervisory bodies. International precedents cited include Ukraine’s ProZorro, South Korea’s KONEPS, and procurement systems in Singapore and Ethiopia, underscoring both technical feasibility and governance challenges for Uzbekistan’s initiative.

Local Coverage: anhor.uz

From daily brief: 2026-01-07

9. New Multimodal Corridor Links Central Asia to China and Europe

Tajikistan and Uzbekistan have launched a pilot multimodal freight corridor designed to link Central Asian cargo with Chinese and European markets; the initial phase dispatched a caravan of 10 trucks from Uzbekistan through Tajikistan into China (no dates provided). Operational details such as schedules and customs arrangements were not disclosed, but the test run signals a deliberate move to diversify logistics away from traditional north–south routes and reduce dependence on single-country transit.

If sustained and scaled, the corridor could shorten delivery times for exporters, expand access to Chinese distribution hubs, and offer an east–west alternative for onward shipments to Europe via rail or sea. The initiative may attract third‑country shippers, spur investment in border and multimodal infrastructure, and create incentives for harmonizing transport and customs procedures between Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Chinese counterparts.

Local Coverage: kun.uz

From daily brief: 2026-01-06

10. O‘zbekneftgaz Explores 2026 Joint Projects with Leading Chinese Oilfield Service Firms

O‘zbekneftgaz met in Tashkent with Chinese service firms GR Xibu Buling Engineering, China 3 National Logging, Great Wall Drilling, and the New Silk Road Oil and Gas JV to review existing cooperation and map joint projects through 2026. Discussions targeted accelerating geological exploration, identifying and developing hydrocarbon reserves, and deploying advanced drilling and logging technologies, with Chinese providers considered for participation in investment and production projects within O‘zbekneftgaz’s portfolio under international standards and competitive techno-economic proposals.

The talks emphasized technology transfer, service integration and phased collaboration to de‑risk field development, improve upstream efficiency and broaden access to capital. Both sides agreed to strengthen business ties and maintain practical dialogue to advance priority initiatives toward 2026, signaling a more integrated Uzbek–Chinese role in regional exploration and production.

Local Coverage: uzdaily.uz, uza.uz

From daily brief: 2026-01-03

About This Weekly Digest

The stories above represent the most significant developments from Uzbekistan this week, selected through our AI-powered analysis of hundreds of local news articles.

Stories are drawn from our daily intelligence briefs, which synthesize reporting from Uzbekistan's leading news sources to provide comprehensive situational awareness for international decision-makers.