Kazakhstan Weekly: Kazakhstan diversifies oil routes, seals budget, advances $3.85B Kazakhmys deal

December 4, 2025 to December 10, 2025

This week's top 10 stories from Kazakhstan, selected from our daily intelligence briefs.

1. Oil Flows Rerouted from CPC as Kazakhstan Expands Alternative Export Paths

After a November 29 drone strike that disabled the CPC’s ATK‑2 loading unit at Novorossiysk, Kazakhstan’s Energy Ministry has begun redirecting part of Kashagan crude away from the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) and boosting shipments via alternative corridors, notably the Kazakhstan–China pipeline and regional rail. Kazakhstan plans to send about 50,000 tonnes of Kashagan crude to China in December — roughly 30,000 tonnes to CNPC and 20,000 tonnes to Inpex — leveraging existing Kazakhstan–Xinjiang capacity that currently moves about 85,000–86,000 tonnes monthly from other fields. Repairs to the ATK‑2 unit are expected around December 11–13; CPC normally handles roughly 80% of Kazakh exports (about 65 million tonnes annual capacity), so full substitution is impossible.

The move underscores both Kazakhstan’s heavy reliance on the CPC route to the Black Sea and the urgency of diversifying export paths to sustain production at major fields like Kashagan. Market implications include logistical rebalancing, potential short‑term volatility in Kazakh crude differentials, and heightened scrutiny on infrastructure security and contract liabilities — issues raised by Energy Minister Erllan Akkenzhenov and discussed with partners including China and Ukraine. Traders will monitor CPC throughput updates and ministry guidance for clarity on normalization timelines and the volume that can be sustained via non‑CPC routes.

Local Coverage: inform.kz, zakon.kz, egemen.kz

From daily briefs: 2025-12-05, 2025-12-11

2. GDP Set to Top $300 Billion as Non‑Resource Exports and SME Output Strengthen

Kazakhstan’s economy is on pace for its strongest growth in a decade, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev said, with 2024 growth expected to exceed 6% and nominal GDP topping $300 billion for the first time. Tokayev highlighted tangible diversification: manufacturing value‑added rose more than 25% over five years, fixed investment is up 70%, labor productivity in the real sector climbed 40%, non‑resource exports nearly doubled, exporting firms tripled to serve 140 countries, and SMEs now contribute roughly 40% of output and employ about 4.5 million people.

Tokayev cautioned that global foreign direct investment is weakening—UNCTAD data show an 11% drop in real‑sector investment in 2024 to about $1.5 trillion—which he said increases competitive pressure for markets and capital and makes improving the domestic investment climate a government priority. He also flagged digitalization and AI as strategic levers that could add $14–20 billion to Kazakhstan’s GDP, calling for a reset in state–business relations and wide‑scale deployment of AI to sustain diversification and attract new investment.

Local Coverage: inform.kz, aikyn.kz, egemen.kz, zakon.kz

From daily brief: 2025-12-06

3. Copper Giant Kazakhmys Nears $3.85 Billion Sale to Qazaq Stroy

Kazakhmys Holding, Kazakhstan’s major copper producer comprising 37 companies and multiple large production sites, is set to be sold to Qazaq Stroy — a firm owned by Nurlan Artykbayev — in a preliminary deal valued at $3.85 billion, with the purchase agreement expected to be signed in December, Malim.kz cites exclusive.kz. Key regulatory consents have reportedly been finalized and the transaction remains subject to independent and internal audits; planned modernization and investment needs for 2026–2045 are estimated at over 3 trillion tenge (about $5.5 billion).

If completed, the deal would significantly reshape Kazakhstan’s mining sector by transferring control of major copper assets to a single domestic buyer and committing substantial long-term capital to production and infrastructure. The sale has already prompted regulatory website updates (NBK-listed materials were temporarily hidden) and widespread media circulation, underscoring political and market sensitivity around ownership consolidation in strategic resources.

Local Coverage: malim.kz

From daily brief: 2025-12-10

4. President Signs 2026–2028 National Budget and Intergovernmental Transfer Law

Kazakhstan’s President has signed the 2026–2028 national budget law and a companion Intergovernmental Transfer Law that sets the volume and formulas for transfers between the republican, regional and city budgets for the same three‑year period. The enactment formalizes medium‑term fiscal planning and revenue‑sharing arrangements; official texts will be published in state media but specific allocations and numeric details have not yet been released.

For international businesses and investors, the package signals policy continuity and establishes a timetable for forthcoming appropriations, project pipelines and public procurement linked to priorities—typically social services, infrastructure and economic programs—and for regional equalization support. Market participants should monitor the forthcoming published laws for concrete figures on sectoral funding, transfer formulas and any changes to tax parameters that will affect cash flows and investment planning.

Local Coverage: inform.kz, aikyn.kz, egemen.kz

From daily brief: 2025-12-09

5. Paris Meetings Advance Franco-Kazakh Deals on Aircraft, Infrastructure, and Green Industry

At the 16th France–Kazakhstan Intergovernmental Commission in Paris, officials signed multiple cooperation documents spanning industry, energy, transport, water, waste management and low‑carbon technologies, signaling reinforced economic ties and government backing for French investors. The headline deal is a memorandum for Airbus A320neo deliveries—an initial 25 aircraft with an option for 25 more by 2031—accompanied by talks to accelerate delivery timelines, explore leasing options and create a joint aviation training center; discussions also addressed reopening Paris–Astana services and launching a Shymkent–Nice route.

The talks further covered airport modernization with TAV Airports, industrial cooperation with Alstom, and broader infrastructure and green‑industry projects aimed at fleet renewal, increased airport capacity and low‑carbon development. For international professionals, these agreements position France as a strategic partner in Kazakhstan’s transport and manufacturing modernization and open commercial opportunities in aircraft leasing, airport upgrades and green technology deployment.

Local Coverage: dknews.kz, dknews.kz, inform.kz, egemen.kz

From daily brief: 2025-12-07

6. US Interest Rises as Rare Metal Finds Position Central Asia as Alternative Supply Hub

New analysis highlights Kazakhstan’s emerging role as an alternative Western source of critical and rare metals, prompting increased U.S. interest in diversifying supply chains away from China and Russia. Newly identified reserves and existing industrial capacity — notably the Ulba Metallurgical Plant’s rare full-cycle beryllium production — span copper, zinc, silver, bauxite/aluminum, uranium, gold, tungsten, titanium, beryllium, scandium, gallium, germanium, tantalum, lithium, cobalt and indium. These materials underpin electronics, renewables, aerospace, military systems, nuclear power and advanced semiconductors, with clear implications for EV batteries, 5G infrastructure, satellites and precision optics.

For international professionals, the piece signals a strategic opportunity and risk: Kazakhstan could materially diversify Western raw-material sourcing and strengthen supply-chain resilience, but the article offers no direct official statements or timelines. Stakeholders should monitor investment moves, project development timelines, and geopolitical and regulatory steps in 2024–25 that will determine whether Central Asia can scale production to meet demand.

Local Coverage: informburo.kz

From daily brief: 2025-12-11

7. CPC Disruption Raises Winter Gas Supply Risks and Delays ATK-3 Startup

Kazakhstan’s winter gas outlook has become riskier after a recent attack on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) route, Energy Monitor reports. Three projects—Tengizchevroil (TCO), Karachaganak Petroleum Operating (KPO) and the North Caspian Operating Company (NCOC)—produce roughly 75% of Kazakhstan’s commercial gas from associated gas, and seasonal demand typically turns the country from a net exporter into a partial importer. With CPC disruption constraining flows, Kazakhstan could need imports from Russia or Turkmenistan if shortages emerge; state wholesaler QazaqGaz could partially buffer consumers but at higher cost, while neighboring constraints would still press the domestic market.

Operators have postponed commissioning of the ATK‑3 unit on safety grounds (no date given), leaving two existing units to handle current flows in mild weather. Technical issues on CPC are unlikely to cause large oil revenue losses, but analysts flag gas shortfalls as the more immediate threat to winter heating—particularly given related delays such as the Kashagan slug‑catcher replacement, which was deferred to avoid tightening commodity gas supply.

Local Coverage: egemen.kz

From daily brief: 2025-12-04

8. Industrial Ties with France Broaden to Critical Minerals Exploration and Processing

Kazakhstan’s Industry and Construction Ministry announced an expansion of industrial cooperation with French and wider European firms into geological exploration, extraction and processing of critical minerals, signaling interest in partnerships across the full raw-materials value chain from upstream exploration to downstream processing. While the ministry did not disclose specific projects, companies or timelines, it emphasized that foreign technology and financing will be pivotal, opening prospects for joint ventures, technology transfer and long-term offtake deals to support Kazakhstan’s industrial upgrading and export diversification.

For international stakeholders, the move implies deeper regulatory and standards alignment with Europe that could ease market access for processed materials and strengthen supply-chain resilience for batteries, renewables and advanced manufacturing. The announcement aligns with broader European efforts to diversify strategic inputs, and suggests opportunities for investors and processors seeking upstream exposure and downstream integration in Central Asia, though concrete details and timetables remain to be published.

Local Coverage: inform.kz

From daily brief: 2025-12-07

9. Uzbekistan to Co-Finance Kambarata-1 Hydropower Project with Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan from 2026

Uzbekistan has agreed to join Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan in co-financing the Kambarata‑1 hydropower plant on the Naryn River, with funding due to begin in 2026, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev announced at the “Sustainable Energy — A Confident Step into the Future of New Uzbekistan” conference in Tashkent. The move revives momentum for the long‑planned flagship regional project and signals a formal trilateral financing arrangement among the three Central Asian states.

For regional power systems, Kambarata‑1 is positioned as a strategic clean baseload asset to expand generation capacity, smooth seasonal supply fluctuations and reduce reliance on imported fossil fuels. Cross‑border funding also implies closer energy and water‑management cooperation between historically sensitive riparian states, potentially reshaping regional resource governance and investment dynamics.

Local Coverage: inform.kz

From daily brief: 2025-12-06

10. Brussels Launches ‘Kazakhstan–EU Gateway’ Platform to Deepen Bilateral Engagement

The EU and Kazakhstan launched the “Kazakhstan–EU Gateway” platform in Brussels on Tuesday as an institutional step to deepen cooperation across trade, investment and policy coordination, signaling EU-level backing for closer connectivity with European stakeholders. The move accompanies the opening of formal visa‑facilitation and readmission negotiations — the EU’s first such process with a Central Asian state — co‑chaired by Kazakhstan’s Deputy Foreign Minister Älibek Bakaev and Johannes Luchner of the European Commission; a second round is planned in Astana in 2026 and talks were announced during the 22nd Kazakhstan–EU Cooperation Council co‑chaired by FM Yermek Kosherbayev and EU HR Kaja Kallas.

The initiatives form part of a broader strategic push underscored by European Council President António Costa’s visit to Astana and proposals for a joint 2025–26 roadmap on critical raw materials, batteries and green hydrogen. Economic ties are substantial: bilateral trade approached $50 billion in 2023 and EU FDI since 2005 is nearing $200 billion, with over 4,000 European firms active in Kazakhstan. For businesses and policymakers the Gateway could streamline market entry, regulatory engagement and sectoral projects in logistics, energy and digital services, while visa facilitation would ease people‑to‑people, academic and commercial exchanges — though governance details and programmatic priorities remain to be announced.

Local Coverage: inform.kz, egemen.kz, aikyn.kz, zakon.kz, malim.kz, dknews.kz

From daily briefs: 2025-12-04, 2025-12-05, 2025-12-06, 2025-12-10, 2025-12-11

About This Weekly Digest

The stories above represent the most significant developments from Kazakhstan this week, selected through our AI-powered analysis of hundreds of local news articles.

Stories are drawn from our daily intelligence briefs, which synthesize reporting from Kazakhstan's leading news sources to provide comprehensive situational awareness for international decision-makers.